So, you’re building your FOAK (First-Of-A-Kind) plant, and the calls are rolling in from investors, all asking the same question: “Who will buy your product?” And they want specifics. A handshake agreement won’t cut it—what they really want to see is a signed contract that covers a significant chunk of your output for the next few years. Welcome to the world of off-takes. What is an Off-Take? An off-take is a long-term agreement where a buyer commits to purchasing your product for several years. Why are they so crucial? When you're dropping hundreds of millions on a FOAK plant, both you and your investors need to be confident that there will be a market for your product once the plant starts churning out units. This is especially important in emerging sectors, where markets are far from established. Think of it this way: an oil well doesn't need an off-take because the market is a well-oiled machine (pun intended). But your brand-new cleantech? That's a different story. Types of Off-Takes Off-takes aren’t new or specific to cleantech; they’ve been around in the energy industry for decades under the name “Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)”. These are typically 10-15-year contracts that guarantee the sale of energy at a pre-agreed price, allowing CAPEX-heavy projects like nuclear or wind farms to secure financing. Similarly, public-private partnerships (PPPs) for municipal infrastructure work on the same principle—guaranteeing demand and price to justify heavy upfront investments. For cleantech startups, though, we’re more interested in off-takes that resemble the B2B deals seen in battery gigafactories, where automakers commit to purchasing a set amount of battery cells over a period of time. And yes, it’s also possible to negotiate off-takes for your own supply chain, securing key components under favorable terms. What to Watch Out for in the FOAK off-take Having negotiated a range of off-takes—from government PPAs to battery deals with automakers—I share some key issues you need to be aware of.   1️⃣ The Price This is the big one. Your off-taker will likely push for the price to drop over time, and they’re not wrong to do so. After all, they’re taking a risk by committing to your product when you haven’t yet delivered anything at scale. But being a FOAK project, you have some leverage here. Push for higher prices early on to cover your costs, pay off debts, and create enough working capital to survive the tricky first years.  💡 Pro Tip: In one of my battery off-take agreements, we locked in significantly higher prices for the first few years, knowing we’d scale and bring costs down later. On the flip side, as an off-taker for wind turbine blades, I negotiated an 80% discount for the last units, knowing our supplier would have paid off all their fixed and marginal costs by then.  2️⃣ The Volume Overpromise on output, and you’re dead in the water. FOAK projects are notorious for production delays and quality issues. Set realistic output expectations and negotiate scale-back clauses that allow for flexibility in the first few years. Your client doesn’t want to be stuck with empty promises, and you don’t want to lose credibility by missing deadlines. Remember Northvolt’s struggles with BMW—and learn from them.  3️⃣ Supplier Certification This one flies under the radar but can be a dealbreaker. Every buyer has a supplier certification process, and they don’t care that you’re a FOAK or how innovative your product is. These processes are often rigid and executed by people who care more about their KPIs than your grand vision. Make sure you fully understand what’s required, who’s responsible, and how long it will take. And be aware that your buyer could use this certification process as an exit strategy if they lose faith in your product along the way.  4️⃣ Quality Parameters You will face quality issues, guaranteed. Instead of risking financial penalties, push for agreements that allow you to replace defective units for free in the early years. Alternatively, you could negotiate to treat the first few shipments as experimental, used for testing rather than commercial sale. These strategies can help protect your relationship with the buyer while you iron out production kinks.  Why It Matters Off-takes are long-term commitments, so take your time to negotiate terms that work for you. Focus on key areas—price, volume, certification, and quality—and don’t rush into an agreement just to secure funding. A poorly negotiated off-take could haunt you for years. Want to dive deeper into the nuts and bolts of off-take negotiations? Stay tuned for next week’s long read, where I’ll break down the mechanics of letters of intent (LOI), memorandums of understanding (MOU), term sheets (TS), and full-blown contracts. 🚀 #Cleantech #ScaleUp #Offtake #FOAK #VentureCapital #EnergyTransition #Manufacturing #Innovation

Sure, nuclear energy is often viewed as a long game for the big boys—decades-long projects, deep pockets, and government involvement (see my post about it here ). But if you're not keen on waiting until 2030 or beyond for that so-called nuclear renaissance, here's what you can do right now.  In my recent research for an investor, I found three nuclear niches where startups can make money this decade—and not by betting on far-off futuristic projects: 1️⃣ Long-Term Operation (LTO): Fancy term for extending the life of existing nuclear plants. This significantly reduces nuclear energy costs and offers plenty of opportunities for startups in advanced materials, robotics, and industrial AI. Want to improve the efficiency of an existing plant? This is where you come in. 2️⃣ Decommissioning: We're not just talking about shutting down nuclear power plants—this includes everything along the nuclear supply chain, like decommissioning nuclear fuel production facilities. There’s a huge market for innovations in nuclear fuel recycling, safe storage, material science, and AI here. 3️⃣ Nuclear-Powered Ships: The tech is ready; the challenge is regulation. Startups like Core Power and TerraPower are betting that regulatory barriers will ease soon. Nuclear-powered vessels could be a game-changer, and this market is heating up. These niches are offering cash flow now, while most nuclear startups don’t expect cash until 2035. 🤑 In the coming weeks, I’ll be diving deeper into each of these markets—so stay tuned! 🚀 You can subscribe to my mailing list so you don't miss out when I post next.  #Cleantech #NuclearEnergy #Decommissioning #Startups #Innovation #ScaleUp #EnergyTransition #AdvancedMaterials #AI

When it comes to cleantech scaleups, there are very few valuable resources available. Extantia  is one of the rare ones, providing a treasure trove of insights into scaling, FOAKs, and NOAKs. Yair Reem ’s latest post introduces the Offtake Pyramid, inspired by Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. But does it work in practice? Source: Extantia From my experience, the reality was a bit different. I had a TRL 9 product—a lithium-ion cell—but I ended up with a conditional offtake. Why? The auto manufacturer was already sourcing cells from CATL, and they wanted an opt-out clause in case our product didn’t meet expectations. At the same time, I needed that offtake to justify building a 4 GWh battery cell plant.  The kicker? Even the client wasn’t sure they’d manufacture the number of EVs they had announced (EU car manufacturers, anyone?)! So, both sides had conditional terms—if our cells delivered as promised, they would commit to a certain volume. And our price was tied to that volume. 🛠 Key takeaway? The pyramid is a great tool for startups at TRL 4-5, where the first steps toward securing offtakes are critical. It shows what you can expect when you progress along the TRL ladder. But what happens when you’re at TRL 8 or 9? Should you go straight for a firm order?  As much as you might wish it, it is not always on the cards.  If that’s your case, feel free to reach out.  You are already on top of the pyramid and there is a lot of work to do. #Cleantech #ScaleUp #Innovation #FOAK #NOAK #BatteryTech #LithiumIon #Manufacturing #StartupJourney #OfftakeAgreements

Northvolt grew fast—maybe too fast. After expanding with new R&D labs and factories, they’ve hit some turbulence. Problems in cell manufacturing and BMW pulling the plug on a major offtake agreement have forced the company to shed excessive assets and refocus on what really matters: their core cell manufacturing business. 🔋 Why does this matter? When scaling, it’s tempting to chase every opportunity—more factories, new R&D labs, bigger deals. But Northvolt’s recent pivot is a powerful reminder: focus is everything.  Scaling doesn’t just mean getting bigger; it means growing sustainably. And when things get tough, the companies that succeed are the ones that stay true to their core. Northvolt’s decision to slim down and concentrate on cell manufacturing is the right one. Whether it’s timely or too late - we are yet to see.  📊 Lesson for scaleups: Don’t spread yourself too thin. It’s better to excel in one area than to stretch your resources across too many. Kudos to Northvolt for recognizing when to adjust the course and showing us all the importance of strategic focus during a scaleup. 🧠 💡 Follow me for more insights into scaling cleantech and building sustainable growth. If you’re navigating your own scaleup challenges, let’s talk! 💬  #Cleantech #ScaleUp #Northvolt #BatteryTech #SustainableGrowth #Focus #StrategicDecisions #Entrepreneurship #BMW #Manufacturing

Corporations can spend on innovation—but rolling out a new product? That’s where things get ugly. Innovation often looks like a shiny, manageable expense on paper. Corporations love to invest in R&D, hire consultants, and develop prototypes. Why not? It’s exciting, gets media attention, and gives execs something to talk about at conferences. But when it comes to actually launching a product into the market? The financials can get ugly, fast. 🔍 Here’s the thing: The cost of rolling out a new product is far more than just a bigger budget line item. It’s about overcoming entrenched supply chains, navigating legacy costs, and breaking into markets where competition is fierce and margins are tight. Worse still, this is where corporate decision-makers face the Innovator’s Dilemma head-on. They have to balance their profitable, existing products (think ICE vehicles) with untested, riskier options (think EVs), and all the while, their profits shrink in the new, low-margin business model. 🚗 Example time: As I mentioned in [*The End of an ICE Age*]( https://www.askerov.pro/post/the-end-of-an-ice-age ), automotive OEMs are stuck with low-margin EVs. Sure, they invested billions in R&D, but when it’s time to scale up production, they face a brutal rkeality: their well-oiled profit machines—the ICE vehicles—are slowly fading, and the margins on EVs are razor-thin. It’s no wonder some are backpedaling on EV rollouts. ⚖️ Why does this matter? Because corporations are often unwilling to fully commit to new product rollouts, they make erratic decisions—like delaying investments or hedging with outdated tech (hydrogen, anyone?). This is why the future doesn’t belong to incumbents. They’re too invested in the past. 🚀 So if you’re watching corporate giants talk about innovation but slow-walk new product rollouts, just know: the real costs of innovation are higher than you think, and for many of them, the math just doesn’t add up. Follow me for more insights into innovation and cleantech scaleups. And drop me a line if you’re ready to disrupt with your own new product! 💬 #Innovation #Cleantech #ScaleUp #ProductDevelopment #EV #CorporateStrategy #Startups #Entrepreneurship #R&D

🔋 The Problems Are Clear. The Solutions Are Mistimed. Except One. Yesterday, I joined the Batteries European Partnership (BEPA) webinar, where we discussed the real challenges facing EU battery cell manufacturing. Here are the key issues: • The gap between lab-to-market timelines is underestimated • CAPEX requirements in the EU are far higher than in other regions • Battery manufacturing operates on razor-thin profit margins, making double-digit GWh scale critical • Europe lacks a local, harmonized battery manufacturing equipment industry—no turnkey solutions exist I agree with this diagnosis, but the proposed "strategic actions" missed the mark. Here’s what was on the table: 1. Environmentally sustainable processing techniques for large-scale Gen 3 and Gen 4 Li-ion batteries 2. Flexible pilot lines for current and next-gen technologies 3. Advanced digital twins in Li-ion battery production lines 4. Digital twins for accelerated setup of manufacturing processes for emerging chemistries Don’t get me wrong—these are good ideas. But it’s like telling a patient with liver failure to eat healthier. Sure, great advice, but it doesn’t address the immediate problem.  Point 1? More sustainability just adds costs—the last thing the industry needs right now. Points 3 and 4? Sure, they could drive costs down... eventually. But time isn’t on our side.  💡 Now, Point 2? That’s the one we need to talk about.   Flexible pilot lines already exist, and they can make all the difference. Why? Two reasons: 1️⃣ Time: Take electrode manufacturing as an example. I spoke to an EU founder who said dropping the electrode part of his gigafactory pitch would cut costs and drastically reduce the timeline to get permits. 2️⃣ And Time Again: The B to D series testing process for new chemistries is painfully long (like, years). But if you work with specialized manufacturing-as-a-service (MaaS) companies, you can fast-track your B- and D-sample batches, cutting costs and time.  Want to know how MaaS can speed up your innovative cell production or scale your manufacturing? Drop me a line and let’s chat! 👇 #BatteryTech #Manufacturing #CleanEnergy #Gigafactory #ScaleUp #Innovation #EnergyTransition #EU

The latest shift away from EVs is a clear signal: legacy automakers don’t have the guts to fully embrace the electric future. And they’re dragging down battery manufacturers with them, making demand unpredictable and growth harder to plan for.  It all started with promise. In 2019, when I was pushing for Rosatom to build a battery business, I used the EU’s ambitious EV phase-out targets for 2035-2040 as a key selling point. Those targets are still in place, but the commitment? Not so much. 🔋 The Cracks in the EV Dream 1️⃣ Battery Manufacturing is Stalling   The EU’s battery industry is struggling. We’re nowhere near the 1500 GWh of capacity that was promised by 2033. As of now, there are just 32 gigafactories with about 200 GWh capacity. News of delayed or canceled factories (Northvolt, ACC, Freyr) is piling up, and the future of EU battery manufacturing looks shaky. 2️⃣ Automakers Are Wavering The bigger issue? Demand from automakers is far from certain. Just a few years ago, they were cheerleaders for the EV revolution. Today, they’re holding governments hostage with factory closures and layoffs. We’re even seeing talks of lifting the ban on ICE vehicles and a push for hydrogen alternatives. This kind of indecisiveness is killing battery makers who are trying to plan for the future. 3️⃣ Profit Margins & The Innovator’s Dilemma Let’s talk numbers: legacy automakers are working with 10-15% profit margins on traditional ICE cars. Chinese EV manufacturers are operating with razor-thin margins of about 5%. And then there’s Tesla, with its 20% margin—the result of the first-mover advantage, quickly eroding. The result? Automakers are trapped. No board in their right mind would back a shift to EVs with lower margins, especially when they’d be forced to cut or close down their profitable ICE divisions. 💼 What Does This Mean for Battery Makers? EU automakers’ lack of commitment to EVs is throwing battery demand into chaos. One day they’re pushing BEVs, the next it’s hybrids or hydrogen🤦🏻‍♂️. It’s impossible for battery makers to plan production and investment when the target keeps moving.  In 2019, the EU was leading the world in fighting climate change with bold EV targets. Today, with Chinese EVs flooding the market, it’s clear who’s winning that race. The hesitation of legacy automakers isn’t just costing them—it’s also stifling the growth of the battery industry that’s crucial for the EV future. 📉 The Bottom Line EU automakers are too late to the EV party. Their high legacy costs, combined with fierce competition from China, make it nearly impossible for them to compete in the low-margin EV world. Their indecision is killing their own future—and dragging down the battery industry along with it. #EV #BatteryTech #AutomotiveIndustry #Innovation #CleanEnergy #Gigafactories #Europe #RenewableEnergy #EnergyTransition #ScaleUp #Cleantech

Well, guess what? The data tells a different story... Every time I talk about the rise of renewables, someone pops up to say they’ll destabilize the grid. With renewables now generating over 40% of Germany’s electricity, it’s time to check that narrative against the facts. One key metric for grid stability is SAIDI—the System Average Interruption Duration Index, which measures how much time the average customer is without power. And here’s the kicker: as Germany's share of renewables has soared, the SAIDI index has consistently declined . ⚡ Source: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/ElektrizitaetundGas/Versorgungssicherheit/Versorgungsunterbrechungen/Auswertung_Strom/start.html For me, this means one of two things:  1️⃣ Renewables aren’t wrecking the grid—they might even be making it stronger.  2️⃣ Even if renewables do add complexity, operators and grid managers are handling it so well that they’ve actually improved  grid stability. Either way, I’ll take it. The data speaks for itself: the lights are staying on, and renewables aren’t the problem.  Keep innovating, follow me, and connect for more practical tips on scaling cleantech startups. 🌱🚀 Your scaleup Consiglieri.  #Renewables #GridStability #EnergyTransition #CleanEnergy #SAIDI #Germany #Cleantech #Data

You're a cleantech scaleup, pitching investors and devouring every book and article on scaling up, but here’s the thing: 90% of the people advising you have never scaled up anything remotely like what you're building.  Your investors, advisors—they might have SaaS experience, but scaling a cleantech hardware company? Nope. Most of the books, videos, and articles out there are focused on software scaleups. They’re as useful to you as a chocolate teapot. 🍫☕️ What should you do? Two things: 1️⃣ Stop listening to people who haven’t been there. Even if they’re suddenly the loudest voices on LinkedIn, if they haven’t done it, their advice is just noise.  2️⃣ Find the people who’ve walked the walk. There’s a massive difference between writing about scaleups and actually scaling up. Trust me—you’ll want to know the difference. 💡 Ready to scale the right way? Reach out if you’re looking for real-world insights from someone who’s been in the trenches. Follow me and connect for more practical tips on scaling cleantech startups. 🌱🚀 Your scaleup Consiglieri.  #Cleantech #ScaleUp #StartupAdvice #Hardware #Manufacturing #Innovation #VentureCapital #Entrepreneurship #Founders #ScaleupJourney #foak #VC

What does it mean for scaleups? With lithium-ion batteries locking down short-term storage, investors are now flooding the long-duration energy storage market, raising $582.4 million in Q2 2024 alone, according to PitchBook Inc. Key players are pitching everything from thermal energy to compressed gas. Highview Power and Rondo Energy are leading the charge, but here’s the catch: as grids absorb more renewables, the actual need for long-duration storage may not be as big as we thought. if you’re scaling up in this space, get ready for tough questions. Why won't your tech be outcompeted by the next shiny thing? How would you justify your total addressable market? 🤔 Bottom line: The market is shrinking, but the cash is flowing. I’ll be over here, popping on my popcorn. 🍿 Follow me for more cleantech insights, and subscribe for the latest on scaleups! #Cleantech #EnergyStorage #VentureCapital #ScaleUp #PitchBook #Renewables #Startups #LongDurationStorage #Innovation

Here’s why:  When I need a good chuckle, I scroll through posts by nuclear energy influencers on LinkedIn. Two things stand out. First, many of these folks have never actually worked in the nuclear industry. Second, they don’t seem to realize just how futile their efforts are.   During my time at Rosatom (2013-2021), I wasn’t directly involved in nuclear projects, but I did get some insider knowledge from Arkadiy Karneev, a seasoned nuclear industry expert. Here’s the hard truth: Nuclear projects are decided by governments, not markets. Every single nuclear power plant is the product of Big Government and Big Business. No exceptions.  Right now, there’s 68 GW of nuclear capacity under construction , with another 109 GW planned and 350 GW suggested. But don’t get too excited—on average, it takes 8 years to build a plant after construction starts. And that doesn’t even count the 5-15 years of design, permitting, and fundraising before the first shovel hits the ground. So, no amount of cheerleading will speed up nuclear energy’s growth. If you’re truly passionate about nuclear, you have three paths:   1️⃣ Become a politician or government official—they’re the real gatekeepers.   2️⃣ Join the old guard—EDF, Westinghouse, and others who’ve been in the game for decades.   3️⃣ Stick with me, and I’ll share how you can carve out opportunities in the nuclear sector without selling out to Big Government or Big Business. Follow me for more insights on cleantech opportunities in nuclear! 💬 #NuclearEnergy #Cleantech #Decarbonization #EnergyTransition #ScaleUp #Innovation #BigGovernment

Australia can now run its grid on close to 100% renewables. That’s a result of a three-year study. The best thing? It is also affordable. Let's break down the key insights—and what they mean for cleantech scaleups. 💰 The Cost Breakdown: Renewables Won’t Break the Bank The article (link at the end) highlights that transitioning to a grid powered by renewables won’t come with an exorbitant price tag. In fact, they estimate the cost to be close to $107 per MWh, including transmission, for a nearly 100% renewable grid. That’s cheaper than most new fossil fuel power plants today. Renewable energy, led by wind and solar, has plummeted in cost over the last decade, and it’s only getting more competitive. 🔋 Batteries: Short-Term Storage is Key While it’s true that batteries will play a crucial role in stabilizing an intermittent renewable grid, the article suggests that we might not need a lot of storage. According to the report, 5 hours of storage is enough to manage most fluctuations in renewable generation. Up to 10 hours of storage will be needed in extreme cases. This is great news for lithium-ion battery producers—they’re already set up to handle this type of short-term storage. So, What Does This Mean for Cleantech Scaleups? 1. Battery Energy Storage is About to Take Off 🚀    As the share of renewables increases, battery storage startups are primed for growth. Lithium-ion batteries, in particular, are perfectly positioned to meet the short-term storage needs of a near 100% renewable grid. But with growth comes competition—scaleups in this space will need to be sharp to stand out. Among the alternative battery technologies, zinc-air batteries could prove to be the most efficient solution for slightly longer-term storage.  2. AI-Driven Software Will Be the Silent Hero 🤖    One trend to watch is the rise of AI-driven software for managing and predicting intermittent renewable generation. As software gets better at forecasting supply and demand, the need for backup power will decrease. The grid will get smarter, requiring less physical backup and relying more on precise, data-driven decisions to keep the lights on. 3. Don’t Write Off Traditional Energy Just Yet 🔋⚡    While renewables will dominate, there’s still room for nuclear reactors, and even (gasp!) natural gas peaker plants, to provide grid stability. These will act as support rather than core energy providers. But we’re headed toward a world where renewables are the backbone of energy production. 4. Predictive Maintenance Will Be Essential 🛠️    As solar and wind become the core of the energy grid, keeping these assets running efficiently will be more important than ever. Predictive maintenance software for solar farms and wind turbines will continue to grow in importance, ensuring that downtime is minimized and renewable generation remains stable. The Time to Scale is Now The transition to a near 100% renewable grid is not just possible—it’s happening. Battery storage and advanced AI software will play a critical role in this shift, creating massive opportunities for cleantech scaleups. But with opportunities come challenges. The competition will be fierce, and only those who innovate and scale smartly will thrive in this rapidly changing landscape.  So, if you're a founder in the energy storage, predictive maintenance, or renewable software space—now is your time to shine. 🌞🔋 👉Follow me for more insights on cleantech and scaleups, and drop me a line if you want to chat about your cleantech scaleup!✍️ Here is the article that I am quoting:   https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewable-grid-is-readily-achievable-and-affordable/ #Renewables #Cleantech #ScaleUp #EnergyStorage #Batteries #AI #PredictiveMaintenance #Sustainability #GridInnovation #Grid