FOAK Climate Tech Monthly — July 2026
- 6 hours ago
- 3 min read
In July the real action came from places that don't do press tours, the fundraising machine kept churning in fusion, and the EU started sawing the legs off the green steel business case. Let's get into it.
The Good News
ATOME Villeta is back from the brink. After Paraguay government revoked its power decree in May, the company now says the government "backs" the project. The PPA negotiations continue. Even if a PPA is signed in the end, last month's move by Paraguay seriously undermined any further investment, and I highly doubt that new terms will be more favourable to ATOME. Still, I put this into "good news" as the project has a chance of surviving.
Heidelberg Materials' Padeswood CCS project in Wales — a sibling effort to the Brevik CCS concept — posted genuine construction progress with over 600 piles installed and 80 workers on site daily. Some real, physical progress in cement CCS FOAK.
Commonwealth Fusion raised another $1 billion, bringing total capital to $4 billion. Reuters, Politico, and seemingly every outlet with a science desk covered it. Although some headlines clearly reflect wishful thinking rather than reality (see the link), the SPARC device is continues construction in Devens, and ARC in Chesterfield is targeted for the early 2030s. Still, a billion-dollar fundraise is not a physics milestone. With Northvolt raising and blowing 15 billion euros, I'd say I'm unimpressed. Still, slotting this into "good news".
ACME Odisha signed a JV with Japan's IHI to secure a Japanese government Contract-for-Difference subsidy for green ammonia, and a $1 billion long-term green methanol export deal with Mitsubishi Gas Chemical. Securing both non-dilutive finance and offtake in one month is plenty to celebrate.
NEOM green hydrogen finally escaped my "Noise" section and made it to good news. Yara finalised a marketing and distribution agreement for green ammonia offtake, and ACWA Power received exclusive Saudi government rights to export green hydrogen. Commercial scaffolding is being assembled, but we're still waiting for the 2.2GW project to demonstrate it can produce at scale and cost.
Bad News and Warning Signs
The most consequential development this month happened on Hainan Island. China's Linglong One ACP100, the world's most-watched small modular reactor, got upstaged by its neighbour - Changjiang Unit 3. A full-size PWR sitting on the same site, reached first criticality while the ACP100 is 216 days behind schedule and costs roughly two and a half times more per megawatt to build. If you're pitching SMRs on cost and schedule advantages over conventional reactors, China just handed you the hardest possible counterargument, built right next door. This does make the "factory-built, faster, cheaper" narrative look as aspirational as ever.
Stegra's situation in Boden just got worse. The European Commission's revised EU ETS proposal would permit an additional 2.4 billion tonnes of CO₂, effectively softening the carbon price trajectory that underpins every green steel business case in Europe. Swedish press is openly questioning whether the calculus still works for Stegra and SSAB. Meanwhile, reporting from Dagens Industri suggests the original founders who got diluted in the rescue financing round have a mechanism to claw back equity — if the company succeeds. That's a big "if" when the policy floor beneath your revenue model is being lowered while you're still under construction. Construction continues, but the EU seem set on consistently working against its own climate goals.
The Noise
The Linglong One case is sure to keep the recently hired Mike McGuire VP of operations at Kairos Hermes in Tennessee. Mr. McGuire is a PhD in nuclear physics and has a background in SpaceX and Special Operations. The operation of any SMR definitely will be something special, if it ever comes to pass. BWXT is advancing a $500M TRISO fuel fabrication facility in Wyoming with Kairos as a partner, eyeing 2031 production.
Three takeaways:
China's Changjiang site is now the most important data point in the global SMR debate because it proves large reactors can still beat SMRs on cost and schedule when the comparison is literal and next door. I'd say the SMR game is over right there on Hainan.
The EU ETS revision is a structural threat to every green steel project in Europe, and Stegra is the canary. If carbon stays cheap, the green premium becomes unfinanceable.
CCS in cement is becoming the sector where FOAK projects get built — Padeswood and Brevik are doing the boring, necessary work while higher-profile projects shuffle partners. This is good for construction progress but it is yet too early to judge wether these CCS projects will make sense.
Next month I'll be watching whether ATOME actually secures a signed PPA in Paraguay, and whether Stegra's management responds publicly to the ETS revision.
