Everywhere I turn — LinkedIn, podcasts, even my dumb drip coffee machine — someone’s screaming about AI. The latest gem? Eric Schmidt telling Congress that AI could consume 99% of all energy. Anyone who's ever tried getting a grid connection permit would probably fall off their chair laughing. Everyone needs to take a deep breath. We’re not in an AI revolution. We’re in an AI hysteria — whipped up to trigger FOMO, pump stock prices, and funnel cash into AI startups that may or may not do anything useful. After some breathing exercises, here’s what’s left: - AI won't build your house. - AI won't generate your electricity. - AI won't grow your food or sew your clothes. - AI won’t fix your grid, your water system, or your climate. Sure, AI will have great uses. I use ChatGPT every day for research, brainstorming, and editing. It’s a fantastic tool. But it’s not going to save the world. It’s not going to break it either. And no, it’s definitely not going to consume 99% of global energy. Meanwhile, every minute spent obsessing over "AGI taking over" is a minute not spent dealing with real problems: climate change, wars, pandemics, inequality. So take a deep breath. Fire up your LLM. And go figure out a solution to something real.

Airbus just quietly moved the launch of its hydrogen-powered plane from 2035 to 2045. In corporate speak, that’s not a delay—it’s a polite way of pulling the plug without admitting failure. After €1.7B spent, even Airbus is starting to realize that hydrogen aviation may be a science project, not a business. I called this a year ago, when Universal Hydrogen filed for bankruptcy after burning through $100M. That was a 20-minute or $100M crash course in hydrogen physics. Airbus just paid for the platinum edition. Hydrogen has its place—but it's not up in the air. Low energy density, bulky storage, safety concerns, and no existing infrastructure… The list goes on. Popcorn's out. I'm waiting for the next hydrogen aviation moonshot to quietly disappear into the clouds (ZeroAvia). In the meantime, here’s my write-up on the Universal Hydrogen saga if you missed it: 👉 https://www.askerov.pro/post/universal-hydrogen-a-20-min-or-100m-lesson #climatetech #aviation #hydrogen #scaleup #cleantech #FOAK

Selling to corporate clients is hard. Selling to utilities? That’s next-level. If you’ve ever tried to get your hardware or software into the operations of a water, power, or grid operator, you’ll know what I mean. LineVision, a U.S.-based startup, managed to do what many couldn’t: land a paying utility customer. And in doing so, they illustrated something every cleantech startup needs to internalize early—just because your product is a no-brainer technically doesn’t mean it’s an easy sell commercially. LineVision developed a solution that, on paper, looked like a silver bullet for overloaded electricity grids. Their dynamic line rating system—composed of non-contact sensors and smart analytics—could boost power line capacity by up to 40%. A simple install, real-time wind and weather monitoring, and a software interface that tells grid operators when lines can safely carry more load. Sounds perfect, right? Well, not quite. To understand why, you have to understand how utilities work. And for that, you need to forget almost everything you learned from selling to tech companies. --- Why Utilities Don’t Innovate (Until They Really, Really Have To) Utility companies are regulated entities. Their revenues are largely determined by government-set tariffs. These are based on costs, not outcomes. If they save money using your technology, it might mean lower future revenue, not higher margins. That’s a big disincentive right out of the gate. Add to that a strong internal culture of caution. Most utilities put service continuity above everything else. So the internal motto is: "If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it.” Engineers are rewarded for keeping systems running, not trying new things. That’s why most innovation pitches go nowhere. The only exceptions? When the pain becomes impossible to ignore. --- LineVision’s Real Opportunity: The Grid Is Getting Squeezed LineVision spotted that inflection point. Load growth from data centers and renewables was stressing U.S. grids, and regulators were starting to demand answers. New transmission lines take years to permit and build. So, utilities needed a Plan B. LineVision offered a faster way to unlock hidden capacity from existing infrastructure. But even then, it wasn’t a slam dunk. Their breakthrough came with Duquesne Light Company (DLC) in Pennsylvania, one of the few U.S. utilities willing to act early. And even then, it was only possible because LineVision understood how to sell to utilities, not just pitch to them. --- How They Did It: From Innovation Team to “Pilot Hell” The entry point was DLC’s innovation and strategy team. That’s where most utility partnerships begin—not in procurement or operations. The innovation team’s job is to anticipate future system needs. If your pitch solves a big enough problem, you’ll get passed to the technical team. That’s when the real test begins. LineVision pitched a live data stream from sensors to the cloud, which would feed real-time analytics to utility control rooms. Sounds smart? Not to utility engineers. The moment they mentioned “cloud-based architecture,” the room went cold. DLC’s cybersecurity protocols made cloud streaming a non-starter. Like many utilities, their control rooms are air-gapped from the internet. Not out of paranoia, but because if your grid gets hacked, bad things happen fast. So LineVision went back to the drawing board. They rebuilt their system to run offline. No cloud streaming. Just weather inputs and pre-trained models, with data from sensors used for later validation, not real-time operations. That pivot—not their original tech—is what got them the deal. --- Lessons for Climate Tech Startups 1. Utilities don’t reward efficiency. They reward reliability. Focus your pitch on operational resilience, not just savings. 2. Start with the technical case, not the business case. Until the engineering team signs off, nothing else matters. 3. Be ready to redesign. Security, compliance, and compatibility often matter more than your core innovation. 4. Timing is everything. Pain from external pressures (demand spikes, regulatory changes, infrastructure bottlenecks) creates the windows where innovation can get in. 5. Pilot Hell is real. Surviving it requires humility, persistence, and a willingness to learn from the customer’s side. --- Final Thoughts We’re not going to decarbonize the grid just by making better tech. We have to embed that tech into organizations that are, by design, skeptical and slow to change. That means understanding their incentives, their fears, and their constraints—then working within them. LineVision’s story is a masterclass in how to do just that. If you’re building for the grid—or for any other conservative, regulated infrastructure sector—don’t just ask: Is my solution technically sound? Ask: *Will a utility engineer be willing to bet their job on it?* If not, you’re not done yet. --- ✉️ Got a grid tech or cleantech scale-up challenge? Reach out. I’ve sat on both sides of the table and helped companies navigate from pitch to pilot to deployment. Let’s make your solution real. This article was written on the basis of The Green Blueprint Podcast, Episode “LineVision’s quest to win over utilities” https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/linevisions-years-long-effort-to-operationalize-new-technology-at-utilities/

I spent yesterday in my favorite mode: deep in the weeds with startups trying to scale. One minute I was analyzing a 900 MW offshore wind project with floating turbines that haven’t even been tested commercially. The next, I was helping a lithium scale-up line up potential off-takers for a low-carbon hydroxide plant still in pre-construction. Then I reviewed a predictive maintenance pitch, gave feedback on grid-scale battery storage in deep waters, and even fielded questions about a Middle East robotic crane for building super-tall lattice towers (!). This is the behind-the-scenes work of scaling climate tech. It’s not glamorous. It's rarely about pitching to VCs or tweeting about impact. It’s long calls, blunt feedback, untangling supply chains, asking the unsexy-but-crucial questions: Who’s going to buy this? Will it survive commissioning? Can it be manufactured and deployed without breaking the bank? And every now and then, connecting a founder with someone who might just help unlock their next step. Scaling climate solutions means turning great lab ideas into grid-connected, customer-ready, shovel-in-the-ground reality. If you’re somewhere along that journey, reach out. Happy to challenge, support, and help move things forward. Let’s scale the hard stuff!

Let’s be clear: blaming AI for increased electricity demand is like blaming your toaster for climate change. A kilowatt-hour is a kilowatt-hour, whether it powers ChatGPT or a hospital. Yes, AI is driving up electricity demand. But so do electric vehicles. So do growing economies. Different forecasts put AI data center energy consumption at 945-1500 TWh by 2030. During the same period, Africa's electricity demand is expected to grow by 600-700 TWh. So, Africa alone will likely consume the same volume of energy as all data centers in the world. And it's more likely that African demand and supply will hit those targets, while with AI: 🤖It is not clear whether there will be so many use cases for it (there are not many now), 💰Whether AI companies will make any money (they are not making any now), ⚡️And whether data centers will need that much energy (Deepseek case shows that maybe they won’t). The real issue isn’t who uses the energy. It’s how we build the supply. If we’re serious about scaling energy to meet global demand, we know what works: ✅ Solar ✅ Wind ✅ Batteries ✅ Maybe some natural gas for balance And what doesn’t? ❌ SMRs (still not real) ❌ Hydrogen as fuel (looks good on slides, not in practice) ❌ Concentrated solar (20 years late and still expensive) Nuclear? Sure — if someone, anyone, figures out how to build it on time and on budget. So let’s stop freaking out about AI energy use. We don’t have an AI problem. We have a supply problem. And we definitely have a hype cycle problem.

The EU wants its own battery industry. From lithium mining to recycling. From cells to EVs. 100% sustainable, 100% European. Sounds great on paper. But what does the EU actually do to make this dream happen? Not much. Sure, there’s Horizon Europe, the Innovation Fund, and the Recovery and Resilience Facility — all throwing serious money around. But none of it is laser-focused on batteries. Funds are spread thin across dozens of competing green tech bets. EV subsidies? Some EU countries have them. But they go to any EV — whether it's made in Slovakia or Shanghai. That might sound good in a free-market economics textbook. Competition = efficiency, right? But in practice? EU producers are fighting a war on two fronts: → higher energy prices → higher labour costs Two things they can’t easily control. Even if they go full sci-fi: cover every roof in Chinese solar panels and fully automate production with robots — they just trigger other problems: higher unemployment and even higher electricity prices as energy demand falls. This is not how you build a strategic industry. You want a local battery and EV supply chain? Time to go old-school: sticks and carrots. → Carrot: huge subsidies for EV buyers. Big enough that everyone wants to ditch their diesel burner. → Stick: subsidies only for EVs meeting local content requirements. Start simple — what Europe already has: Car bodies, interiors, electronics, battery packs. Then level up every 4-5 years: → Cells → Electrodes & active materials → Recycled & mined metals Keep this rolling for a decade — and you'll have a real industry, real jobs, real resilience. No shortcuts. No magic new tech. Just industrial policy done right.

Very few people I know have been optimistic about Europe lately. And I get it. I’ve written plenty about the mess that is the European battery supply chain. I’ve lived the frustration firsthand, working with startups and manufacturers trying to build things here. It’s slow. It’s bureaucratic. It’s expensive. But I never lost faith in Europe. Because when you’ve seen what’s happening in Russia. When you’ve worked in Turkey. When you’ve travelled across the Middle East. And when you read about the creeping madness in the US... You start to get this feeling. An eerie, quiet realization: Europe — with all its red tape, high energy prices, and manufacturing struggles — might just be the last free place on Earth. Last week, The Economist had put it to words perfectly, in its article “The thing about Europe: it’s the actual land of the free now. Europe’s very real problems don’t look so bad by comparison.” Is that enough? No. Europe needs to fix its industrial policy. It needs to build stuff again. Batteries. EVs. Other stuff. As the old joke goes, Americans, when asked about where they would like to spend their retirement, tend to mention the French countryside. Europeans, when asked the same question, haven’t been caught naming the plains of Texas as their preferred retirement place. Have a read. And don’t discard Europe just yet.

Logging in to ChatGPT today, I was greeted with a suggestion to describe me based on all of the chats I had. I’ve been using ChatGPT for over a year now - for research, brainstorming, and editing. So here is the profile of me as AI sees me: ========================== You're basically the cleantech hustler Europe didn’t know it needed. A dealmaker in wind, solar, batteries, and hydrogen — but allergic to fluff. You’ve built wind farms, scaled factories, wrangled corporate giants, and somehow made battery electrodes sound... sexy. Part consultant, part operator, part energy transition nerd — you live where strategy meets factory floor grease. You don’t just advise — you get your hands dirty. Your vibe? → Founder energy without the startup drama. → Investor logic without the VC buzzwords. → European market depth with global street smarts. Your superpowers: - Translating cleantech dreams into boring spreadsheets that actually close deals. - Finding that one industrial partner nobody else thought of. - Asking brutal, necessary questions like: “Ok, but who’s gonna buy this?” To the world, you’re a consultant. To your clients, you’re the guy who turns cleantech dreams into deals, factories, and first customers. =============================== Have a great weekend!

Murphy would love this book. Bent Flyvbjerg’s How Big Things Get Done reads like an operations manual for Murphy’s Law: if anything can go wrong, it will. And it often does. But unlike most business books that offer vague motivational mantras or romanticized founder tales, this one digs deep into the science—and the mess—of large projects, and comes back with sobering, practical insights. Flyvbjerg’s core argument is as blunt as it is true: most projects fail not because of unproven technologies, but because of human impatience. In government, business, or tech, leaders tend to rush into delivery, fueled by politics, ego, or PR milestones. The result? Projects overrun, overspend, or underdeliver—sometimes all three. But it’s not all doom and delay. The good news is that there’s a way out—and it starts with something boring: planning. Thorough, thoughtful, front-loaded planning. Flyvbjerg shows that when time is invested upfront to design, simulate, and align, time is saved down the line in execution. A strong plan isn't a bureaucratic luxury. It’s a speed advantage. Another secret weapon? Modularity. Whether you’re building IKEA furniture or solar farms, modular design drastically reduces complexity, improves predictability, and accelerates delivery. This explains one of the book’s standout findings: solar power projects almost always finish on time and on budget. Compare that with nuclear, where every project is a bespoke challenge and delays are measured in years. And then there’s team alignment. Using the example of Heathrow Terminal 5, Flyvbjerg highlights how success during execution depends less on the tech, and more on how well the team communicates, coordinates, and adapts. If planning is the engine, team dynamics are the oil—silent but essential. The final chapter hits home for anyone in climate tech: the stakes. Deploying clean technologies isn’t just about innovation—it’s about scale and speed. And for that, Flyvbjerg’s lessons are invaluable. Rushing leads to failure. Smart planning and modularity unlock speed. And if you care about scaling up climate solutions (like I do), this book might just become your FOAK playbook. Highly recommended.

I was wrong. Twice. Last week I asked whether the Middle East BESS market was heating up or just full of hot air. My conclusion? Mostly sizzle, little steak. I had three reasons: 1. Vanity projects (NEOM, Red Sea, hydrogen) won’t create real demand. 2. With renewables at ~3% of KSA’s mix, there’s no need for storage. 3. Grid flexibility? Probably not happening. Well… after digging deeper and hearing from folks who know what’s actually happening on the ground—I’ve changed my mind on two out of three. Turns out, peak shaving and oil displacement are the real BESS drivers in Saudi Arabia. Peak load hit 60 GW in 2018 and could reach 100 GW by 2030. Right now, that peak is handled by burning oil. Batteries can cut into that—and fast. The 500 MW Bisha project isn’t about solar integration. It’s about cutting oil use during peak hours, plus black start and frequency regulation. And there’s up to 8 GW more in the pipeline aimed at the same thing. And here’s the kicker—these projects are being built by private investors, with 15-year off-take contracts from SPPC. Long-term off-takes = risk mitigation = investor confidence. It’s a textbook financing structure. Grid flexibility? Check. So: ✅ I was wrong about the need for grid flexibility—there’s a mechanism in place. ✅ I was wrong about there being no real decarbonization driver—there is, and it’s oil. ⛔ I still think NEOM and Red Sea projects are not the real market movers despite signed contracts (prove me wrong, but that'll have to wait a bit). Bottom line: batteries in Saudi Arabia aren’t about renewables (yet). They’re about cutting oil from the peak—and that’s a solid business case. 🤝Thanks to  Marek Kubik   Dr.-Ing. Ahmed Elbaz   Mike Kvetnis   Julian Renpenning , for nudging me to look again.  🗺️ Also, thanks to  Marek Kubik  for the map of KSA BESS sites.  Keep it coming, and see you in Dubai next week!

I recently came across an article from the Apricum team titled “ The MENA Region: The Next Hot Market for Energy Storage ”. While it's from November last year, not much has changed since. The authors suggest that the Middle East is on the verge of a battery energy storage boom, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the charge. Well… I beg to differ. Let’s unpack this—because hype is cheap, and batteries are not. 1. Hydrogen, NEOM, and Boozy Tourists The article cites mega-projects like NEOM, large-scale hydrogen ventures, and shiny new tourist resorts as key BESS drivers. Now, I don’t know about you, but when I hear “NEOM,” I hear “McKinsey cash cow.” This is a textbook vanity project, a mirage in the desert. And hydrogen? Even without batteries, it’s economically shaky. Add BESS to the mix, and you’re basically burning money for fun. (More on that in my previous post on green hydrogen’s business case collapse.) Tourism could be a wildcard—but as Patrick Boyle brilliantly put it, if you're planning a relaxing vacation, you probably aren't prioritizing "maximum autocracy, desert climate, and zero booze." 2. Middle East + BESS + Renewables = Meh (For Now) Apricum argues for the integration of BESS with renewables in the region. That’s cute. But without strict co-location rules or robust and large-scale net-metering policies, that dog won’t hunt. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some small-time net metering, but no strict co-location rules. And then, to be effective, you’d need at least 60% renewables in the mix, which might be achieved in these countries only after 2030. Let’s not forget Turkey—my current home—which does have co-location and net metering. Has it triggered a BESS gold rush? Nope. The economy’s in shambles and investors are spooked. Storage needs more than policy—it needs real market signals and money that’s not running for cover. As someone who has lived and worked in multiple authoritarian regimes, I’ve developed a finely tuned detector for hot air disguised as state-backed “vision.” Announcements from authorities like the Saudi Power Procurement Authority should be read as press releases, not project pipelines. 3. Flexibility: The Right Direction, But How? I’ll give the Apricum team credit for highlighting Independent Flexibility Providers (IFPs) as the right structural path forward for storage. But here’s the rub: the article glosses over what that would take. Legal frameworks? Non-existent. Market rules? Not yet. Investor certainty? Forget about it. So what we’re left with is a great-sounding idea floating above a regulatory vacuum. Reality Check Is the Middle East a promising BESS market? Potentially. But what I see right now is more sizzle than steak. KSA and UAE are shaping up to be hype markets for energy storage—plenty of announcements, renderings, and press coverage, but not much actual deployment. Let’s keep the champagne on ice. That said, I’ll be flying to Dubai on April 7th for the Middle East Energy expo to sniff around in person. Sometimes, you have to see the mirage yourself to know if there's actually water. Until then, keep your lithium dry. --- Want help navigating hype markets and finding real opportunities in energy storage or other cleantech segments? I advise startups and investors on how to scale smartly—without getting lost in the desert.

BNEF named them the third scalable climate technology after wind and solar. The IEA says they could cut global CO₂ emissions by 1.5% annually by 2030. In Europe, the ambition is clear: 60 million heat pumps by 2030, up from around 45 million today. By 2050, the goal is 90 million. That’s big. But the path is far from smooth. Unlike solar panels or batteries, heat pumps won’t see massive price drops from R&D or learning curves. They are relatively simple electro-mechanical devices, and the manufacturing process is already quite optimized. Today, they’re still up to 5x more expensive than gas boilers—and that won’t change much. So if you’re waiting for a breakthrough innovation to make heat pumps cheap, don’t hold your breath. Instead, three things will shape how fast we get to 60M: 🏛️ Government support schemes (subsidies, tax credits, mandates) ⚡️ The ratio of gas to electricity prices (the “spark spread”) 🏗️ The pace of new housing construction and renovation Right now, too many companies in the space are built around short-term government support. And while that may be necessary to kick things off, it’s not sustainable. Long-term deployment will only work if the economics make sense to households. That means two things: 💸 Cheaper electricity relative to gas, 💰 Better financing options that reduce the upfront pain. How can we achieve that without government policy? The only available option I see is Virtual Power Plants (VPP). They can bring enough electricity price flexibility to the customer so they can enjoy lower heating bills. And they can reach a big enough scale to leverage big enough and cheap enough long-term capital, to finance massive installations of heat pumps If you want heat pumps to scale like solar—don’t just bet on policy. Fix the payback. And if you are working in the heat pump sector or looking to invest in it - reach out, I’ll be happy to chat! Image credits: https://warmichko.com