The latest shift away from EVs is a clear signal: legacy automakers don’t have the guts to fully embrace the electric future. And they’re dragging down battery manufacturers with them, making demand unpredictable and growth harder to plan for.  It all started with promise. In 2019, when I was pushing for Rosatom to build a battery business, I used the EU’s ambitious EV phase-out targets for 2035-2040 as a key selling point. Those targets are still in place, but the commitment? Not so much. 🔋 The Cracks in the EV Dream 1️⃣ Battery Manufacturing is Stalling   The EU’s battery industry is struggling. We’re nowhere near the 1500 GWh of capacity that was promised by 2033. As of now, there are just 32 gigafactories with about 200 GWh capacity. News of delayed or canceled factories (Northvolt, ACC, Freyr) is piling up, and the future of EU battery manufacturing looks shaky. 2️⃣ Automakers Are Wavering The bigger issue? Demand from automakers is far from certain. Just a few years ago, they were cheerleaders for the EV revolution. Today, they’re holding governments hostage with factory closures and layoffs. We’re even seeing talks of lifting the ban on ICE vehicles and a push for hydrogen alternatives. This kind of indecisiveness is killing battery makers who are trying to plan for the future. 3️⃣ Profit Margins & The Innovator’s Dilemma Let’s talk numbers: legacy automakers are working with 10-15% profit margins on traditional ICE cars. Chinese EV manufacturers are operating with razor-thin margins of about 5%. And then there’s Tesla, with its 20% margin—the result of the first-mover advantage, quickly eroding. The result? Automakers are trapped. No board in their right mind would back a shift to EVs with lower margins, especially when they’d be forced to cut or close down their profitable ICE divisions. 💼 What Does This Mean for Battery Makers? EU automakers’ lack of commitment to EVs is throwing battery demand into chaos. One day they’re pushing BEVs, the next it’s hybrids or hydrogen🤦🏻‍♂️. It’s impossible for battery makers to plan production and investment when the target keeps moving.  In 2019, the EU was leading the world in fighting climate change with bold EV targets. Today, with Chinese EVs flooding the market, it’s clear who’s winning that race. The hesitation of legacy automakers isn’t just costing them—it’s also stifling the growth of the battery industry that’s crucial for the EV future. 📉 The Bottom Line EU automakers are too late to the EV party. Their high legacy costs, combined with fierce competition from China, make it nearly impossible for them to compete in the low-margin EV world. Their indecision is killing their own future—and dragging down the battery industry along with it. #EV #BatteryTech #AutomotiveIndustry #Innovation #CleanEnergy #Gigafactories #Europe #RenewableEnergy #EnergyTransition #ScaleUp #Cleantech

Well, guess what? The data tells a different story... Every time I talk about the rise of renewables, someone pops up to say they’ll destabilize the grid. With renewables now generating over 40% of Germany’s electricity, it’s time to check that narrative against the facts. One key metric for grid stability is SAIDI—the System Average Interruption Duration Index, which measures how much time the average customer is without power. And here’s the kicker: as Germany's share of renewables has soared, the SAIDI index has consistently declined . ⚡ Source: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/ElektrizitaetundGas/Versorgungssicherheit/Versorgungsunterbrechungen/Auswertung_Strom/start.html For me, this means one of two things:  1️⃣ Renewables aren’t wrecking the grid—they might even be making it stronger.  2️⃣ Even if renewables do add complexity, operators and grid managers are handling it so well that they’ve actually improved  grid stability. Either way, I’ll take it. The data speaks for itself: the lights are staying on, and renewables aren’t the problem.  Keep innovating, follow me, and connect for more practical tips on scaling cleantech startups. 🌱🚀 Your scaleup Consiglieri.  #Renewables #GridStability #EnergyTransition #CleanEnergy #SAIDI #Germany #Cleantech #Data

You're a cleantech scaleup, pitching investors and devouring every book and article on scaling up, but here’s the thing: 90% of the people advising you have never scaled up anything remotely like what you're building.  Your investors, advisors—they might have SaaS experience, but scaling a cleantech hardware company? Nope. Most of the books, videos, and articles out there are focused on software scaleups. They’re as useful to you as a chocolate teapot. 🍫☕️ What should you do? Two things: 1️⃣ Stop listening to people who haven’t been there. Even if they’re suddenly the loudest voices on LinkedIn, if they haven’t done it, their advice is just noise.  2️⃣ Find the people who’ve walked the walk. There’s a massive difference between writing about scaleups and actually scaling up. Trust me—you’ll want to know the difference. 💡 Ready to scale the right way? Reach out if you’re looking for real-world insights from someone who’s been in the trenches. Follow me and connect for more practical tips on scaling cleantech startups. 🌱🚀 Your scaleup Consiglieri.  #Cleantech #ScaleUp #StartupAdvice #Hardware #Manufacturing #Innovation #VentureCapital #Entrepreneurship #Founders #ScaleupJourney #foak #VC

What does it mean for scaleups? With lithium-ion batteries locking down short-term storage, investors are now flooding the long-duration energy storage market, raising $582.4 million in Q2 2024 alone, according to PitchBook Inc. Key players are pitching everything from thermal energy to compressed gas. Highview Power and Rondo Energy are leading the charge, but here’s the catch: as grids absorb more renewables, the actual need for long-duration storage may not be as big as we thought. if you’re scaling up in this space, get ready for tough questions. Why won't your tech be outcompeted by the next shiny thing? How would you justify your total addressable market? 🤔 Bottom line: The market is shrinking, but the cash is flowing. I’ll be over here, popping on my popcorn. 🍿 Follow me for more cleantech insights, and subscribe for the latest on scaleups! #Cleantech #EnergyStorage #VentureCapital #ScaleUp #PitchBook #Renewables #Startups #LongDurationStorage #Innovation

Here’s why:  When I need a good chuckle, I scroll through posts by nuclear energy influencers on LinkedIn. Two things stand out. First, many of these folks have never actually worked in the nuclear industry. Second, they don’t seem to realize just how futile their efforts are.   During my time at Rosatom (2013-2021), I wasn’t directly involved in nuclear projects, but I did get some insider knowledge from Arkadiy Karneev, a seasoned nuclear industry expert. Here’s the hard truth: Nuclear projects are decided by governments, not markets. Every single nuclear power plant is the product of Big Government and Big Business. No exceptions.  Right now, there’s 68 GW of nuclear capacity under construction , with another 109 GW planned and 350 GW suggested. But don’t get too excited—on average, it takes 8 years to build a plant after construction starts. And that doesn’t even count the 5-15 years of design, permitting, and fundraising before the first shovel hits the ground. So, no amount of cheerleading will speed up nuclear energy’s growth. If you’re truly passionate about nuclear, you have three paths:   1️⃣ Become a politician or government official—they’re the real gatekeepers.   2️⃣ Join the old guard—EDF, Westinghouse, and others who’ve been in the game for decades.   3️⃣ Stick with me, and I’ll share how you can carve out opportunities in the nuclear sector without selling out to Big Government or Big Business. Follow me for more insights on cleantech opportunities in nuclear! 💬 #NuclearEnergy #Cleantech #Decarbonization #EnergyTransition #ScaleUp #Innovation #BigGovernment

Australia can now run its grid on close to 100% renewables. That’s a result of a three-year study. The best thing? It is also affordable. Let's break down the key insights—and what they mean for cleantech scaleups. 💰 The Cost Breakdown: Renewables Won’t Break the Bank The article (link at the end) highlights that transitioning to a grid powered by renewables won’t come with an exorbitant price tag. In fact, they estimate the cost to be close to $107 per MWh, including transmission, for a nearly 100% renewable grid. That’s cheaper than most new fossil fuel power plants today. Renewable energy, led by wind and solar, has plummeted in cost over the last decade, and it’s only getting more competitive. 🔋 Batteries: Short-Term Storage is Key While it’s true that batteries will play a crucial role in stabilizing an intermittent renewable grid, the article suggests that we might not need a lot of storage. According to the report, 5 hours of storage is enough to manage most fluctuations in renewable generation. Up to 10 hours of storage will be needed in extreme cases. This is great news for lithium-ion battery producers—they’re already set up to handle this type of short-term storage. So, What Does This Mean for Cleantech Scaleups? 1. Battery Energy Storage is About to Take Off 🚀    As the share of renewables increases, battery storage startups are primed for growth. Lithium-ion batteries, in particular, are perfectly positioned to meet the short-term storage needs of a near 100% renewable grid. But with growth comes competition—scaleups in this space will need to be sharp to stand out. Among the alternative battery technologies, zinc-air batteries could prove to be the most efficient solution for slightly longer-term storage.  2. AI-Driven Software Will Be the Silent Hero 🤖    One trend to watch is the rise of AI-driven software for managing and predicting intermittent renewable generation. As software gets better at forecasting supply and demand, the need for backup power will decrease. The grid will get smarter, requiring less physical backup and relying more on precise, data-driven decisions to keep the lights on. 3. Don’t Write Off Traditional Energy Just Yet 🔋⚡    While renewables will dominate, there’s still room for nuclear reactors, and even (gasp!) natural gas peaker plants, to provide grid stability. These will act as support rather than core energy providers. But we’re headed toward a world where renewables are the backbone of energy production. 4. Predictive Maintenance Will Be Essential 🛠️    As solar and wind become the core of the energy grid, keeping these assets running efficiently will be more important than ever. Predictive maintenance software for solar farms and wind turbines will continue to grow in importance, ensuring that downtime is minimized and renewable generation remains stable. The Time to Scale is Now The transition to a near 100% renewable grid is not just possible—it’s happening. Battery storage and advanced AI software will play a critical role in this shift, creating massive opportunities for cleantech scaleups. But with opportunities come challenges. The competition will be fierce, and only those who innovate and scale smartly will thrive in this rapidly changing landscape.  So, if you're a founder in the energy storage, predictive maintenance, or renewable software space—now is your time to shine. 🌞🔋 👉Follow me for more insights on cleantech and scaleups, and drop me a line if you want to chat about your cleantech scaleup!✍️ Here is the article that I am quoting:   https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewable-grid-is-readily-achievable-and-affordable/ #Renewables #Cleantech #ScaleUp #EnergyStorage #Batteries #AI #PredictiveMaintenance #Sustainability #GridInnovation #Grid

🎙️ Reflecting on the Latest Climate Insiders Podcast with Nadav Steinmitz 🌍 Three key takeaways really hit home for me from the latest episode: 1️⃣  VCs Need to Rethink Cleantech:  Unlike software startups, climatetech ventures take time—**3+ years** before they hit first revenue. That’s not a quick sprint, it’s a marathon. And the gap in FOAK financing is a direct result of this mismatch in expectations.  2️⃣ Herd Mentality in VC Funding:  Investors flock to hyped-up climate tech that isn’t ready for prime time. The result? Money poured into solutions that aren’t quite scalable yet, leaving others that are ready starving for capital.   3️⃣ Funding Rebound Ahead:  Despite a dip in VC funding over the past two years, Nadav predicts a rebound as the global economy steadies. So, stay sharp—things are about to get interesting.  Catch the full podcast below and 👇follow me for more cleantech scaleup insights and drop me a line to chat about your scaleup! 💬 https://www.climateinsiders.co/can-deep-tech-hardware-solutions-decarbonize-our-planet-ft-nadav-steinmetz-climate-first/ #Cleantech #ScaleUp #VentureCapital #ClimateTech #FOAK #innovation #podcast #VC #funding

🌊In the days of the Genoa Republic, a startup would not be about building cutting-edge tech in the comfort of your lab -  it was about buckling on a cutlass and setting sail into treacherous seas. Back then, the stakes were a bit different—storms, pirates, and illness meant the risk wasn’t just financial but often life-threatening. Yet, the Genoans were legendary seamen, known for their innovations and dominance on the waves. What’s fascinating is how they structured their ventures, particularly their capital stack. 💰Here’s how it worked: wealthy Genoans who didn’t fancy risking their lives at sea—let’s call them the investors—would fund the ships, crews, and cargo. The captains—the founders—had no money but were willing to brave the seas for a share of the profits. The deal? A 50/50 split of the profits between investors and the captain. This arrangement gave captains every incentive to make the voyage a success. With skin in the game and control over the journey, it’s no wonder Genoa ruled the seas for seven centuries, innovating everything from brutal fencing to denim. 👨🏼‍💻Fast forward to the 21st century, and you’ll find that raising money for your FOAK (First-of-a-Kind) project can feel like navigating those same stormy seas. But unlike the Genoan investors, many modern-day investors balk at the idea of a 50/50 split. In one case I witnessed with an electric car platform startup, an investor insisted on taking 100% ownership because the founding team wasn’t contributing capital—just their expertise and sweat equity. Spoiler: this story doesn’t have a happy ending. But we’ll come back to that.  So, what should you watch out for when building your FOAK capital stack? Let’s break it down: 🚫 Don’t Dilute Too Much Planet A’s "Building and Scaling Climate Hardware Playbook" offers sensible advice here: don’t dilute too much. But how much is too much? In episode 6 of my podcast, WattsUpWithStartups , I talked with Duke Oh, the founder of JR Energy Solution. Duke’s startup, a classic hardware cleantech, built a factory capable of producing 500 MWh of lithium-ion electrodes annually. But Duke couldn’t prevent his investors from diluting his share too much, leading to management challenges and a severe drop in motivation. My take? Aim to keep a controlling stake of 50%+1 share. This is crucial if you have one or two major investors holding more than 25%, giving them a blocking stake. With a simple majority, you can push through key decisions. Remember, after your FOAK, you’re not done with equity funding—you’ll likely need to dilute further. If you drop to 25% or less post-FOAK, your share will dwindle even more when building NOAKs (Nth-of-a-Kind projects), leaving you with little control and motivation. 🚷 Watch Out for Non-Operating Founders Non-operating founders—advisors, counselors, and other part-timers—can contribute to your success, but they shouldn’t hold too much equity. Planet A suggests keeping their stakes below 5%. If they already own more than that, implement buy-back or dilution clauses to regain control.  👑 Concentrate Decision-Making Authority A capital stack that’s too diffused among many small investors is just as dangerous as one dominated by a single large investor. Too many small investors lead to confusion, slow decisions, and muddy governance. On the flip side, if one investor holds a majority, their opinion will outweigh everyone else’s, effectively making them the sole owner. To avoid these pitfalls: - Keep any single investor’s share under 20%, especially in the early stages. Don’t let them accumulate a blocking stake of 25%+. - Pool smaller investors’ decision-making rights to streamline processes. This is where a good lawyer can be invaluable. - Beware of exclusive rights like vetoes, golden shares, or rights of first refusal. These can undermine your control—avoid them at all costs. 🚩 Worst-Case Scenario Back to that electric car platform startup. The original inventor, eager to get the project off the ground, conceded to the investor’s demands, handing over 100% ownership. The founder is now just an employee, drawing a paycheck instead of sharing in the success. It’s like agreeing to navigate stormy, pirate-infested waters—not for half the profit, but for a meal. 🧭 Need Guidance? If you’re navigating the tricky waters of building your FOAK capital stack, reach out. I can help you secure the necessary funds while ensuring you retain the decision-making power you need to steer your venture to success. 🌊🚀 #FOAK #Cleantech #Startups #VentureCapital #Entrepreneurship #ScalingUp #CapitalStack #Innovation #FounderTips #DecisionMaking

This question came up yesterday at the 4WARD VC roundtable with energy CEOs, and it's a good one. Two days ago I posted about the rise of VC funding of batteries. That’s an early sign of coming change, but the change itself is not yet here.  It’s actually pretty natural for batteries to lag behind renewables. Research shows that you need at least 30% of renewable energy in your grid before batteries become essential to balance the system. That need spikes once you hit 60% penetration. Right now, renewables account for 43% of total installed capacity, but they’re only generating 8% of electricity. So, in most cases, it’s just too early for batteries to take the spotlight. The exceptions? Countries where renewables already have surpassed the 30% mark. You’ll know them by the battery co-location requirements their governments impose on new renewable projects. So, for most of the world, it’s a waiting game. But that tipping point is coming. ⏳ #EnergyStorage #Renewables #BatteryTech #CleanEnergy #GridBalancing #4WARDVC #Batteries #EnergyTransition

🏁The race is on! Gigafactory capacity is already big enough to meet all Net Zero targets—and there's more on the way. We’re seeing some exciting contenders like sodium-ion and lithium-sulfur, but the real winner? It’s going to be the tech that slides right into existing gigafactories without a hitch.  🏭Here’s the deal: billions have already been poured into building these factories, and everyone’s now eyeing their returns. No one’s going to back a battery tech that can’t be produced with the equipment already in place. The production process will make or break the next big thing in batteries.  #BatteryTech #Gigafactory #CleanEnergy #Innovation #SodiumIon #LithiumSulfur #NetZero #EnergyStorage

🔋 The Battery Boom (no, not THAT one!): VC Funding Surges as Renewables Demand Grows 💰 Intermittent renewables like 🌞 solar and 🌬️ wind need batteries to keep the lights on when the sun isn’t shining, and the wind isn’t blowing. And now, it seems that renewables have finally grown big enough to draw serious investment into stationary battery technologies. In Q2 2024, the grid infrastructure segment saw a record $2.6 billion in VC funding, making up 60.1% of all clean energy investments for the quarter. Within this, battery energy storage stood out, overtaking solar photovoltaics as the largest category with $2.3 billion in VC deal value, compared to $1.1 billion for solar. ⚡ Interestingly, alternative energy storage technologies also made waves, becoming the third-largest category for the quarter. This puts all three major categories in the grid infrastructure segment—battery energy storage, alternative energy storage, and solar photovoltaics—among the top five by total funds raised. 📈 Here are the quarter’s largest deals: - Nexamp: Raised $520 million in later-stage VC funding as a renewable energy developer. 🌱 - Highview Power: Secured $381.9 million in later-stage VC funding for its liquid air energy storage technology. ❄️ - Sila: Pulled in $375 million in Series G funding for its lithium-ion battery development. 🔋 The message is clear: as renewables scale up, so does the demand for the technologies that support them. And investors are paying attention. 👀 Follow me for more insights into cleantech scaleups!  Source: PitchBook INC. #EnergyStorage #VentureCapital #CleanEnergy #Renewables #BatteryTech #Grid #Infrastructure #VCFunding #ScaleUp #Batteries #Hardware

CTVC is claiming that the hydrogen bubble is deflating, if not bursting. The reason - slowing investment growth and some startups going bust. I think this fairy tale is not yet over.   When a couple of startups go out of business, it is not the time yet to state the death of an industry. Startups go out of business all the time. This is usually a good thing for the industry. Ideas that are not working in practice get winnowed out, the good ones get a chance to grow.  With hydrogen, you have to be patient. The multitude of sectors where it can be applied is bewildering to investors. This makes it very difficult to separate hydrogen zombies from hydrogen unicorns.  Doing homework and technical due diligence seems to be lost on many hydrogen investors. So it will take a long time and lots of money, both private and taxpayers, before we figure out what works and what does not.  Meanwhile, have a read:  https://www.ctvc.co/the-hard-truth-about-hydrogen-210/