Very few people I know have been optimistic about Europe lately. And I get it. I’ve written plenty about the mess that is the European battery supply chain. I’ve lived the frustration firsthand, working with startups and manufacturers trying to build things here. It’s slow. It’s bureaucratic. It’s expensive. But I never lost faith in Europe. Because when you’ve seen what’s happening in Russia. When you’ve worked in Turkey. When you’ve travelled across the Middle East. And when you read about the creeping madness in the US... You start to get this feeling. An eerie, quiet realization: Europe — with all its red tape, high energy prices, and manufacturing struggles — might just be the last free place on Earth. Last week, The Economist had put it to words perfectly, in its article “The thing about Europe: it’s the actual land of the free now. Europe’s very real problems don’t look so bad by comparison.” Is that enough? No. Europe needs to fix its industrial policy. It needs to build stuff again. Batteries. EVs. Other stuff. As the old joke goes, Americans, when asked about where they would like to spend their retirement, tend to mention the French countryside. Europeans, when asked the same question, haven’t been caught naming the plains of Texas as their preferred retirement place. Have a read. And don’t discard Europe just yet.

Logging in to ChatGPT today, I was greeted with a suggestion to describe me based on all of the chats I had. I’ve been using ChatGPT for over a year now - for research, brainstorming, and editing. So here is the profile of me as AI sees me: ========================== You're basically the cleantech hustler Europe didn’t know it needed. A dealmaker in wind, solar, batteries, and hydrogen — but allergic to fluff. You’ve built wind farms, scaled factories, wrangled corporate giants, and somehow made battery electrodes sound... sexy. Part consultant, part operator, part energy transition nerd — you live where strategy meets factory floor grease. You don’t just advise — you get your hands dirty. Your vibe? → Founder energy without the startup drama. → Investor logic without the VC buzzwords. → European market depth with global street smarts. Your superpowers: - Translating cleantech dreams into boring spreadsheets that actually close deals. - Finding that one industrial partner nobody else thought of. - Asking brutal, necessary questions like: “Ok, but who’s gonna buy this?” To the world, you’re a consultant. To your clients, you’re the guy who turns cleantech dreams into deals, factories, and first customers. =============================== Have a great weekend!

Murphy would love this book. Bent Flyvbjerg’s How Big Things Get Done reads like an operations manual for Murphy’s Law: if anything can go wrong, it will. And it often does. But unlike most business books that offer vague motivational mantras or romanticized founder tales, this one digs deep into the science—and the mess—of large projects, and comes back with sobering, practical insights. Flyvbjerg’s core argument is as blunt as it is true: most projects fail not because of unproven technologies, but because of human impatience. In government, business, or tech, leaders tend to rush into delivery, fueled by politics, ego, or PR milestones. The result? Projects overrun, overspend, or underdeliver—sometimes all three. But it’s not all doom and delay. The good news is that there’s a way out—and it starts with something boring: planning. Thorough, thoughtful, front-loaded planning. Flyvbjerg shows that when time is invested upfront to design, simulate, and align, time is saved down the line in execution. A strong plan isn't a bureaucratic luxury. It’s a speed advantage. Another secret weapon? Modularity. Whether you’re building IKEA furniture or solar farms, modular design drastically reduces complexity, improves predictability, and accelerates delivery. This explains one of the book’s standout findings: solar power projects almost always finish on time and on budget. Compare that with nuclear, where every project is a bespoke challenge and delays are measured in years. And then there’s team alignment. Using the example of Heathrow Terminal 5, Flyvbjerg highlights how success during execution depends less on the tech, and more on how well the team communicates, coordinates, and adapts. If planning is the engine, team dynamics are the oil—silent but essential. The final chapter hits home for anyone in climate tech: the stakes. Deploying clean technologies isn’t just about innovation—it’s about scale and speed. And for that, Flyvbjerg’s lessons are invaluable. Rushing leads to failure. Smart planning and modularity unlock speed. And if you care about scaling up climate solutions (like I do), this book might just become your FOAK playbook. Highly recommended.

I was wrong. Twice. Last week I asked whether the Middle East BESS market was heating up or just full of hot air. My conclusion? Mostly sizzle, little steak. I had three reasons: 1. Vanity projects (NEOM, Red Sea, hydrogen) won’t create real demand. 2. With renewables at ~3% of KSA’s mix, there’s no need for storage. 3. Grid flexibility? Probably not happening. Well… after digging deeper and hearing from folks who know what’s actually happening on the ground—I’ve changed my mind on two out of three. Turns out, peak shaving and oil displacement are the real BESS drivers in Saudi Arabia. Peak load hit 60 GW in 2018 and could reach 100 GW by 2030. Right now, that peak is handled by burning oil. Batteries can cut into that—and fast. The 500 MW Bisha project isn’t about solar integration. It’s about cutting oil use during peak hours, plus black start and frequency regulation. And there’s up to 8 GW more in the pipeline aimed at the same thing. And here’s the kicker—these projects are being built by private investors, with 15-year off-take contracts from SPPC. Long-term off-takes = risk mitigation = investor confidence. It’s a textbook financing structure. Grid flexibility? Check. So: ✅ I was wrong about the need for grid flexibility—there’s a mechanism in place. ✅ I was wrong about there being no real decarbonization driver—there is, and it’s oil. ⛔ I still think NEOM and Red Sea projects are not the real market movers despite signed contracts (prove me wrong, but that'll have to wait a bit). Bottom line: batteries in Saudi Arabia aren’t about renewables (yet). They’re about cutting oil from the peak—and that’s a solid business case. 🤝Thanks to  Marek Kubik   Dr.-Ing. Ahmed Elbaz   Mike Kvetnis   Julian Renpenning , for nudging me to look again.  🗺️ Also, thanks to  Marek Kubik  for the map of KSA BESS sites.  Keep it coming, and see you in Dubai next week!

I recently came across an article from the Apricum team titled “ The MENA Region: The Next Hot Market for Energy Storage ”. While it's from November last year, not much has changed since. The authors suggest that the Middle East is on the verge of a battery energy storage boom, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the charge. Well… I beg to differ. Let’s unpack this—because hype is cheap, and batteries are not. 1. Hydrogen, NEOM, and Boozy Tourists The article cites mega-projects like NEOM, large-scale hydrogen ventures, and shiny new tourist resorts as key BESS drivers. Now, I don’t know about you, but when I hear “NEOM,” I hear “McKinsey cash cow.” This is a textbook vanity project, a mirage in the desert. And hydrogen? Even without batteries, it’s economically shaky. Add BESS to the mix, and you’re basically burning money for fun. (More on that in my previous post on green hydrogen’s business case collapse.) Tourism could be a wildcard—but as Patrick Boyle brilliantly put it, if you're planning a relaxing vacation, you probably aren't prioritizing "maximum autocracy, desert climate, and zero booze." 2. Middle East + BESS + Renewables = Meh (For Now) Apricum argues for the integration of BESS with renewables in the region. That’s cute. But without strict co-location rules or robust and large-scale net-metering policies, that dog won’t hunt. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some small-time net metering, but no strict co-location rules. And then, to be effective, you’d need at least 60% renewables in the mix, which might be achieved in these countries only after 2030. Let’s not forget Turkey—my current home—which does have co-location and net metering. Has it triggered a BESS gold rush? Nope. The economy’s in shambles and investors are spooked. Storage needs more than policy—it needs real market signals and money that’s not running for cover. As someone who has lived and worked in multiple authoritarian regimes, I’ve developed a finely tuned detector for hot air disguised as state-backed “vision.” Announcements from authorities like the Saudi Power Procurement Authority should be read as press releases, not project pipelines. 3. Flexibility: The Right Direction, But How? I’ll give the Apricum team credit for highlighting Independent Flexibility Providers (IFPs) as the right structural path forward for storage. But here’s the rub: the article glosses over what that would take. Legal frameworks? Non-existent. Market rules? Not yet. Investor certainty? Forget about it. So what we’re left with is a great-sounding idea floating above a regulatory vacuum. Reality Check Is the Middle East a promising BESS market? Potentially. But what I see right now is more sizzle than steak. KSA and UAE are shaping up to be hype markets for energy storage—plenty of announcements, renderings, and press coverage, but not much actual deployment. Let’s keep the champagne on ice. That said, I’ll be flying to Dubai on April 7th for the Middle East Energy expo to sniff around in person. Sometimes, you have to see the mirage yourself to know if there's actually water. Until then, keep your lithium dry. --- Want help navigating hype markets and finding real opportunities in energy storage or other cleantech segments? I advise startups and investors on how to scale smartly—without getting lost in the desert.

BNEF named them the third scalable climate technology after wind and solar. The IEA says they could cut global CO₂ emissions by 1.5% annually by 2030. In Europe, the ambition is clear: 60 million heat pumps by 2030, up from around 45 million today. By 2050, the goal is 90 million. That’s big. But the path is far from smooth. Unlike solar panels or batteries, heat pumps won’t see massive price drops from R&D or learning curves. They are relatively simple electro-mechanical devices, and the manufacturing process is already quite optimized. Today, they’re still up to 5x more expensive than gas boilers—and that won’t change much. So if you’re waiting for a breakthrough innovation to make heat pumps cheap, don’t hold your breath. Instead, three things will shape how fast we get to 60M: 🏛️ Government support schemes (subsidies, tax credits, mandates) ⚡️ The ratio of gas to electricity prices (the “spark spread”) 🏗️ The pace of new housing construction and renovation Right now, too many companies in the space are built around short-term government support. And while that may be necessary to kick things off, it’s not sustainable. Long-term deployment will only work if the economics make sense to households. That means two things: 💸 Cheaper electricity relative to gas, 💰 Better financing options that reduce the upfront pain. How can we achieve that without government policy? The only available option I see is Virtual Power Plants (VPP). They can bring enough electricity price flexibility to the customer so they can enjoy lower heating bills. And they can reach a big enough scale to leverage big enough and cheap enough long-term capital, to finance massive installations of heat pumps If you want heat pumps to scale like solar—don’t just bet on policy. Fix the payback. And if you are working in the heat pump sector or looking to invest in it - reach out, I’ll be happy to chat! Image credits: https://warmichko.com

Everyone loves a clean energy success story. But when you look at the actual investment returns from 30 years of wind and solar startups in manufacturing and generation, it’s… not what the hype suggests. So I dug into the data. 📉 Turns out: The majority of VC-backed companies in this space failed to return even the original investment, let alone 10x. Why? Because building turbines and solar panels is capital-intensive, commoditized, and policy-dependent. Margins are thin. Market timing is everything. And if you're not First Solar or Goldwind, odds are you're toast. ⚡ Yes, there were big wins: - First Solar: 10x+ for early backers - Suntech: massive early IPO gains (before collapsing) - Airtricity: a wind IPP sold for over €1B - Enphase: 100x public market rise — but it took 15 years But for every one of those, there are 10+ stories like: - Solyndra (lost $1B) - MiaSolé (sold for 30M after raising 500M) - Q-Cells (bankrupt) - Clipper Windpower (fizzled out) 💡 Lesson: If you're investing in climate tech manufacturing, you’re not in software-land. You’re in infrastructure — long cycles, deep capital, geopolitical risk. 🧠 The 10x mindset can still work — but only if you adapt it to the reality of hardware and electrons. Or look adjacent: inverters, control systems, embedded software… those have quietly created some of the biggest returns in the sector. If you’re a founder or investor scaling up climate technology and want a second set of eyes on your strategy or pitch, drop me a message. I’ve been there, and I know what’s under the hood. #climatetech #startups #vc #solar #wind #energytransition #hardwarestartups #greentech #cleantech #investing

Taking your cleantech startup from the lab to your first-of-a-kind (FOAK) facility is a huge leap. But before you start thinking about scaling, you need to answer one crucial question: Does your technology have a viable business case? Green hydrogen scaling up is a perfect example of what happens when the business case doesn’t exist. Despite billions in investment and massive political backing, it still struggles to make economic sense. If you’re building a FOAK, you need to avoid the same traps. Why Green Hydrogen Scaling up is Struggling The numbers don’t lie: 🔌 Electricity costs dominate.  Nearly 80% of green hydrogen’s operational costs come from electricity. Unless you have ultra-cheap, round-the-clock renewables, your margins disappear. 🏗️ Capital costs are massive. Almost 50% of CAPEX goes into power infrastructure. Even with declining electrolyzer costs, the investment burden remains high. 🤑 It can’t compete on price.  Fossil fuel hydrogen costs $1.50-$2 per kg, while green hydrogen struggles to get below $5 per kg. The economics just don’t work—yet. Take a look at the infographics of the green hydrogen OPEX structure from Clean Hydrogen Observatory: Source: https://observatory.clean-hydrogen.europa.eu/hydrogen-landscape/production-trade-and-cost/cost-hydrogen-production The Lesson for Cleantech Startups If you’re scaling a cleantech business, you must ask: Will my business case work in the next 5-10 years? If not, then maybe it’s time to pivot. The world is running out of time. We don’t need tech that might be viable in 2040. We need scalable solutions now. If your startup relies on a cost breakthrough or market shift that won’t happen for another decade, consider launching something that can scale up today. Green hydrogen might become competitive one day—but we don’t have time to wait. The climate clock is ticking. Are you building something that can scale in time?

This year will be one of the hardest for the Cleantech industry. Here is why. Shift of global priorities 💥 With wars raging on and old alliances crumbling, countries scramble to spend more on defense. Climate spending by governments risks being pushed back or scaled down. 🤖AI is in the spotlight. Investors are mesmerized by AI and its promises of making a quick buck. Coupled with the defense startups growing popularity, climate tech startups' financing is getting harder. Cleantech ain’t delivering on promises 💸 Despite the growing share of renewable energy in Europe, and the US, energy prices for consumers are not going down as promised. 🚘 Western EV makers cannot make an affordable EV 🪦 A wave of bankruptcies of high-profile cleantech startups, like Northvolt, Arrival, Universal Hydrogen, Fisker, etc., damaged the credibility of climate startups. Coupled with the fact that in 2024 the planet breached the 1.5C warming threshold, these developments combine to create a “perfect storm” - while the climate visibly deteriorates, government and investors seem to be looking the other way. What are your thoughts? Will Net-Zero policies be shelved in 2025? Or will Cleantech in 2025 achieve “escape velocity” and develop on its own, without government support? Post your thoughts in the comments below!

In any large-scale construction project, your EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) contractor  will either be your greatest asset or your biggest liability. When you're scaling from a Demo  to a First-of-a-Kind (FOAK)  facility - often a 10x jump - it is hard to expect your internal team to handle everything. This is where an experienced EPC partner comes in. Exceptions can be made, and I wrote about them last week. A good EPC can make your project fly , while the wrong choice can sink it before it starts. Just look at ATOME , the UK-based green ammonia startup. They locked in Casale S.A. , a century-old ammonia tech leader, as their EPC partner—ensuring expertise, credibility, and smooth execution. Why the Cheapest EPC is Usually the Most Expensive It's tempting to go for a contractor that offers the lowest bid. Don't.  Instead, aim for a best-in-class EPC.  A reputable contractor reassures investors and increases your chances of success. Here’s why: The EPC business is cutthroat.  Pipelines rarely extend beyond two years , cashflows are tight, and most firms survive on reputation. For an EPC, your FOAK isn’t just a project - it’s a portfolio opportunity.  The right contractor might hesitate at first, but if they see the long-term value of adding a cutting-edge project like yours to their resume, they might be willing to work with you. The contrast between two lithium-ion gigafactories in Russia is a case in point: In Kaliningrad , an unknown, low-cost EPC  from Novosibirsk won the contract. Construction stalled for years. Near Moscow , a top-tier local EPC  took charge, and the project is nearing completion ahead of schedule. Due Diligence: More Than Just a Price Tag Hiring an EPC is like hiring an artist — visit their previous projects, talk to their past clients, and assess their financial health.  An EPC shutting down mid-project due to cash problems can be catastrophic. When negotiating, aim for a fixed-price, full-wrap contract.  Your EPC will push back—FOAK projects are full of unknowns—but stand firm. If you’re doing procurement yourself, negotiate pass-through pricing  for key materials. Otherwise, anything under EPC's control should be their full responsibility.  Exceptions? Only if there’s no alternative—and even then, with extreme caution. Final Thought: EPC Selection for your FOAK is a strategic decision Your FOAK project  is already a massive challenge. Don’t gamble on your EPC.  Choose wisely, negotiate hard, and set yourself up for success.

We have all the tech we need to tackle climate change. What we don’t have? Enough First-of-a-Kind (#FOAK) projects actually getting built. #VCs have been making noise about FOAK lately - but let’s be real: VCs don’t finance FOAKs.  They fund the early stages. Now that their startups are stuck at the FOAK wall, struggling to raise the next round, VCs have suddenly started talking about the problem. 💰  Funding FOAKs is one thing. Building them is another. #Northvolt proved that even with all the money in the world, you can still spectacularly blow a FOAK  if you don’t execute right. That’s why a new branch of the #climatetech ecosystem is emerging: FOAK assistants. These are not consultants. They don’t just give advice—they train, coach, and bring in missing skills and resources. They’ve done it before, often multiple times. And they have skin in the game. CTVC recently interviewed David Yeh and Julian Ryba-White, diving deep into how their companies help startups become scale-ups and successfully build FOAKs. It’s a must-read. Source: CTVC The only problem? Mr. Yeh and Mr. Ryba-White are based in the US. If you’re scaling up or FOAKing in Europe or the Middle East, let’s talk—I’ll help set you up for success. Because FOAKs don’t just need funding. They need FOAK expertise and #execution.

When scaling from Demo to FOAK, one of the biggest decisions is whether to hire an EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) company or manage the build yourself. A great EPC can bring industry expertise, supplier relationships, and project management skills—all crucial for execution. ATOME’s green ammonia project partnered with Casale S.A., boosting investor confidence.  On the flip side, Rosatom’s first planned gigafactory stalled due to a poor EPC choice, while another factory with a better EPC is already nearing completion. The wrong EPC can set your project back years. But skipping an EPC is possible—if you know what you’re doing. JR Energy Solution built a 500 MWh electrode factory in just 8 months without an EPC, thanks to founder Duke Oh’s deep industry knowledge. How to decide? If your Demo project built strong industry relationships and you have an experienced team, you might  be able to go without an EPC. If your technology is highly novel and you lack execution expertise, an EPC may be necessary—but you need to negotiate terms carefully to avoid delays and cost overruns. Either way, treating your Demo as a “mini-EPC” exercise prepares you for both paths. Would you trust an EPC for your FOAK, or would you rather go it alone?