This year, I’m doing something simple and public.

I’ve put together a list of 23 First-of-a-Kind climate tech projects that are supposed to hit meaningful milestones in 2026 — commissioning, certification, first operations, or first proof that the business case holds outside a slide deck.

I’ll be monitoring these projects throughout the year and sharing monthly updates on what actually moves, what stalls, and what quietly changes scope.

Below is the starting snapshot.

FOAK projects I’ll be tracking in 2026

What this table already tells us

1. Steel, hydrogen and CCS dominate — again (facepalm)

Heavy industry decarbonisation is still where FOAK capital clusters:

• DRI steel,

• hydrogen supply chains,

• carbon capture and storage.

That’s not because they’re easy — but because people thought they would be easy. 2026 might well become the year where dreams of hydrogen, CCS and green steel finally crash against hard reality. Green steel though, might avoid this fate in the EU, thanks to CBAM going full-steam.

2. Integration risk outweighs technology risk

Very few of these projects are betting on unknown physics, although many CCS and hydrogen do believe they can change its laws.
Most are betting on:

• EPC discipline,

• supply-chain reliability,

• permitting,

• offtakers having nerves of steel,

• and the ability to survive delays without balance-sheet collapse.

In other words: classic FOAK failure modes.

3. Regulation and certification loom large

Projects like aviation hydrogen, nuclear, CCS hubs — they don’t fail in labs.
They fail in when regulatory approvals last longer than investors’ patience.

Which brings me to the ones I’ll be watching especially closely.

FOAK Projects I’m personally watching — with raised eyebrows

Lyten taking over Northvolt’s facilities


This is one of the most interesting experiments on the list.
Not a greenfield dream — but a brutal attempt to make someone else’s broken factory work with a new chemistry.
If this succeeds, it will say more about execution than battery science.

ZeroAvia


This year feels existential.
Certification timelines, cash burn, and customer patience will all collide.
Hydrogen aviation doesn’t get infinite “almost there” years.

Climeworks


Direct Air Capture is past the storytelling phase. Last year dismal results put forward simple and uncomfortable question:
Can Mammoth operate reliably, predictably, and economically — or does scale just magnify the problems?

NEOM Green Hydrogen


A masterclass in ambition and capital availability, or, I’d say, ability to separate capital from investors. 
Also a masterclass in how many things must go right simultaneously.
I’m not watching for technology — more for governance, interfaces, reality checks, and how to keep a smooth face in a loosing game.

Commonwealth Fusion


Fusion is like Schrödinger’s cat - it is simultaneously alive and dead. This year I’m watching how CMF will be inflating its promises as it inevitably heads for collapse.

How I’ll use this list

• Monthly status checks

• Quiet changes in scope and language

• Delays vs real progress

• And, occasionally, calling things what they are

No cheerleading. No doomposting. 
Just FOAKs as they are — fragile, expensive, necessary.

If you’re building, financing, or betting on FOAKs:
you already know the truth (or should) — execution is the product.

More to come this month.