FOAKs vs Reality: January 2026
- Emin Askerov
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Today is the first monthly check-in on the 23 FOAK climate tech projects I said I’d track publicly in 2026! FOAKs get talked about more and more, which is definitely a good thing! I’m following up on the developments of the largest and most interesting FOAK projects in climate tech. I first go over the good news, then the bad, and you’ll get an updated table at the end!
The good news (actual execution happened)
H2 Green Steel (now Stegra) signed a long-term supply agreement with Thyssenkrupp. This is good news, as Stegra narrowly avoided bankruptcy at the end of last year. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/swedish-steel-startup-stegra-signs-deal-supply-thyssenkrupp-materials-2026-01-12/
Linglong One (ACP100 SMR) completed a successful non-nuclear steam-run test in late December. I’m putting it here, as I’ve missed it a month earlier. It is worth noting that the project has been under development since 2010, the design of the 125 MW SMR passed a safety review by the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2016. The plant is expected to start commercial energy generation in the first half of 2026. Can’t wait!https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/chinese-smr-completes-non-nuclear-steam-start-up-test
Kairos Power in the USA cleared a non-trivial bottleneck by securing HALEU nuclear fuel from the DOE for its 50 MW SMR.
1komma5 DAC signed an agreement with Bain & Company to purchase 9000 tons worth of CDR credits over the next three years. Good for them, but why on Earth do B&C need those is a mystery to me.
NEOM Green Hydrogen proudly crossed the “90% built” line. It was also the only project of the infamous “The Line” that survived recent cuts.https://fuelcellsworks.com/2026/01/13/green-investment/neom-s-green-hydrogen-megaproject-reaches-90-percent-build-milestone
The warning signs (already visible in January)
Commonwealth Fusion is playing around with AI mock-ups of its 400 MW SFR (small fusion reactor) and planning for commercial delivery in 2030. This could have been in the “Good news” section, but come on, after reading the news on Linglong One, who on Earth will believe them?
ZeroAvia stretches timelines and rejigs certifications after last year’s layoffs and securing another funding round.
Lyten taking over Northvolt’s facilities has been going nowhere so far, while Lyten has been pulling out of the USA.
Eavor-Loop (Germany) a thermal energy startup, delivered electricity to the grid from a closed-loop geothermal system. This should’ve been in the good news section, but with an output of just 0,5MW out of planned 2 MW, Eavor-Loop seems to face the same ramp-up difficulties as Climeworks did last year. Read an insightful deep dive by Michael Barnard here: https://cleantechnica.com/2026/01/15/when-next-generation-geothermal-meets-first-of-a-kind-reality/
The noise – companies stirring up news, but making little progress
Net Zero Teesside in the UK made it to the news this month after striking a deal for 7000 tons of steel for its project with MMEC, a Chinese steel supplier. The company caused a public outrage over sidelining UK steel producers.
Early conclusion (subject to revision, monthly)
For me, the most exciting result of the month comes from China, with Linglong One completing non-nuclear tests and gearing up for the market. The disappointment of the month is Eavor-Loop, failing to generate any significant amounts of energy. Thermal power generation has been much hyped last year, only to stumble at the first launch.
I’ll keep tracking these projects every month:
what changes,
what slips,
and what gets renamed to sound like progress.
Just tracking FOAKs meeting reality.
February update coming first week of March!
