💸 Why (most) climate tech startups don’t deliver 10x returns
- Emin Askerov
- Mar 25
- 1 min read
Everyone loves a clean energy success story.
But when you look at the actual investment returns from 30 years of wind and solar startups in manufacturing and generation, it’s… not what the hype suggests.
So I dug into the data.
📉 Turns out:
The majority of VC-backed companies in this space failed to return even the original investment, let alone 10x.
Why?
Because building turbines and solar panels is capital-intensive, commoditized, and policy-dependent.
Margins are thin. Market timing is everything. And if you're not First Solar or Goldwind, odds are you're toast.
⚡ Yes, there were big wins:
- First Solar: 10x+ for early backers
- Suntech: massive early IPO gains (before collapsing)
- Airtricity: a wind IPP sold for over €1B
- Enphase: 100x public market rise — but it took 15 years
But for every one of those, there are 10+ stories like:
- Solyndra (lost $1B)
- MiaSolé (sold for 30M after raising 500M)
- Q-Cells (bankrupt)
- Clipper Windpower (fizzled out)
💡 Lesson: If you're investing in climate tech manufacturing, you’re not in software-land. You’re in infrastructure — long cycles, deep capital, geopolitical risk.
🧠 The 10x mindset can still work — but only if you adapt it to the reality of hardware and electrons. Or look adjacent: inverters, control systems, embedded software… those have quietly created some of the biggest returns in the sector.
If you’re a founder or investor scaling up climate technology and want a second set of eyes on your strategy or pitch, drop me a message. I’ve been there, and I know what’s under the hood.
